BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Piedmont has surged: up 601% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+601%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
162Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Piedmont: up 601% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Piedmont is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Piedmont is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 1.0–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.951.7
20261.30.971.7
20271.40.991.7
20281.41.01.8
20291.41.01.8

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EmmitsburgMARYLAND72024
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA62024
OlneyMARYLAND52024
EarltonMARYLAND52024
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA52024
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA52024
BendersvillePENNSYLVANIA52024
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA52024
WylliesburgVIRGINIA52019
FinchleyVIRGINIA52021
Good HopeGEORGIA42024
Sunny SideGEORGIA42019
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA42021
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA41996
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA42022
ShrewsburyPENNSYLVANIA42022
RidgewaySOUTH-CAROLINA42011
LincolntonGEORGIA32017
FairplayGEORGIA31991
Piedmont NwrGEORGIA32002
Upper XrdsMARYLAND32008
SandbrookNEW-JERSEY32024
CrotonNEW-JERSEY32003
Hulls XroadsNORTH-CAROLINA32023
MonticelloNORTH-CAROLINA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.