BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-tailed Hawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainBirds of prey

Red-tailed Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+175%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
325Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.67–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.67–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.900.631.2
20270.910.641.2
20280.920.651.2
20290.930.661.2
20300.940.671.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MansfieldTENNESSEE72025
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA62025
ForestonSOUTH-CAROLINA62019
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA62019
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI52016
CornlandVIRGINIA52014
Defuniak SprFLORIDA42021
HendersonGEORGIA42025
VidaliaGEORGIA42024
Thornton RoadGEORGIA42018
Trace SouthMISSISSIPPI42010
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA42025
CokesburyNORTH-CAROLINA42025
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA42014
GrangeburgALABAMA32024
AutaugavilleALABAMA32024
DarienGEORGIA32017
JacksonboroGEORGIA32024
NeedmoreGEORGIA31980
Pineora 2GEORGIA32024
BargesGEORGIA32022
BentonMISSISSIPPI32024
FayetteMISSISSIPPI32007
CorinthMISSISSIPPI32025
NeelyMISSISSIPPI32009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.