BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+185%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 185% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-tailed Hawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.9–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.9–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.72.8
20262.31.82.9
20272.41.82.9
20282.41.82.9
20292.41.93.0

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneMISSOURI292021
Trading PostKANSAS122024
HumboldtKANSAS112022
HarrisonvilleMISSOURI102023
GrantvilleKANSAS82022
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA82022
JamestownINDIANA72024
BrookvilleINDIANA72024
DoverKANSAS72022
PittsburgKANSAS72021
SeveranceKANSAS72024
FilleyMISSOURI72023
NorborneMISSOURI72023
HumboldtNEBRASKA72024
KunkleOHIO72024
JanesvilleILLINOIS62024
RensselaerINDIANA62024
ThrallKANSAS61970
BolckowMISSOURI61992
EmdenMISSOURI62024
Marion 2OHIO62024
WayneILLINOIS52024
MonicaILLINOIS52017
FairburyILLINOIS52024
PontiacILLINOIS52023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.