BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-tailed Hawk In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Red-tailed Hawk in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-tailed Hawk has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Red-tailed Hawk In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 88% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.9–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-tailed Hawk in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 88% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.9–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.83.4
20262.61.83.5
20272.71.93.5
20282.71.93.5
20292.81.93.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Red-tailed Hawk in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA112023
SpartaNEBRASKA82021
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA82019
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA62011
Winside 2NEBRASKA62022
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA62024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
OkleeMINNESOTA52021
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA52024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA52024
ScrantonIOWA42024
GluekMINNESOTA42019
WinsideNEBRASKA42003
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA42021
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA42024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA42024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA42012
ZearingIOWA31995
MccallsburgIOWA32024
BurchinalIOWA32024
WylieMINNESOTA32024
LockhartMINNESOTA32024
WhitlashMONTANA32023
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA32024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.