BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026100.0024
20279.30.0023
20288.10.0022
20296.90.0021
20305.80.0020

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlturasFLORIDA1411986
St LucieFLORIDA1202025
Dale MabryFLORIDA1141988
BrowardFLORIDA971973
GardnerFLORIDA951999
KendallFLORIDA931991
Boca RatonFLORIDA851994
RedlandsFLORIDA852024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA722025
MabelFLORIDA692011
ScottsmoorFLORIDA602025
Myakka HeadFLORIDA592011
SalvistaFLORIDA521979
Pleasant GrFLORIDA512009
DavieFLORIDA462017
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA462025
WebbFLORIDA402025
ChildsFLORIDA382022
Punta GordaFLORIDA382015
Sunniland GrFLORIDA372021
FlemingtonFLORIDA371999
RomeoFLORIDA352025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA352025
Citrus ParkFLORIDA322025
KenansvilleFLORIDA292025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.