BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.00–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0025
20269.90.0024
20278.80.0023
20287.60.0022
20296.40.0020

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlturasFLORIDA1411986
St LucieFLORIDA1192024
Dale MabryFLORIDA1141988
BrowardFLORIDA971973
GardnerFLORIDA951999
KendallFLORIDA931991
Boca RatonFLORIDA851994
RedlandsFLORIDA852024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA762024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA702024
MabelFLORIDA692011
KissimmeeFLORIDA692024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA592011
SalvistaFLORIDA521979
Pleasant GrFLORIDA512009
DavieFLORIDA462017
RomeoFLORIDA382024
ChildsFLORIDA382022
Punta GordaFLORIDA382015
Sunniland GrFLORIDA372021
FlemingtonFLORIDA371999
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA352024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA292024
WebbFLORIDA282024
SebastianFLORIDA271992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.