BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
242Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Mockingbird has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Mockingbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 1.5–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.11.66.6
20274.11.66.6
20284.11.66.6
20294.11.66.5
20304.01.56.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WainwrightOKLAHOMA922013
WelchOKLAHOMA342025
DunlapOHIO301988
MoreheadKANSAS292025
GildehouseMISSOURI241989
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA242022
GalesburgKANSAS232025
PeoriaOKLAHOMA232023
LincolnvilleKANSAS212024
NorwalkOHIO182022
BucyrusKANSAS172025
Mt VernonILLINOIS162025
Trading PostKANSAS162025
NewportOHIO161994
ColumbiaILLINOIS152025
KingsvilleMISSOURI152025
DarrtownOHIO152021
ReeceKANSAS142025
FilleyMISSOURI142025
MoselleMISSOURI142025
MaplewoodINDIANA132021
MelroseKANSAS132023
DoverKANSAS132022
House SpringsMISSOURI132025
WilmingtonOHIO131996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.