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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Mockingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 8.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 8.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026134.721
2027134.621
2028134.521
2029124.420
2030124.320

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS792023
ColonyOKLAHOMA681995
CookietownOKLAHOMA612006
WeinertTEXAS521994
CoopertonOKLAHOMA412025
Pear ValleyTEXAS412025
WilliamsTEXAS412025
LakeviewTEXAS382025
GrimesOKLAHOMA362025
ChildressTEXAS352025
WakitaOKLAHOMA342016
ShieldsTEXAS322001
Beaver CreekTEXAS322025
Mertzon 2TEXAS312025
CharlieTEXAS312025
Shields 2TEXAS302025
SilverTEXAS282025
ElginOKLAHOMA252016
VerdenOKLAHOMA242017
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA241994
DouglasOKLAHOMA232022
ReedOKLAHOMA222019
RosstonOKLAHOMA222018
HollisOKLAHOMA222025
GirardTEXAS212025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.