BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Mockingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Northern Mockingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.8–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 4.8–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025135.221
2026135.121
2027135.021
2028134.921
2029134.821

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Northern Mockingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EldoradoTEXAS792023
ColonyOKLAHOMA681995
CookietownOKLAHOMA612006
Pear ValleyTEXAS582024
WeinertTEXAS521994
ChildressTEXAS382024
WakitaOKLAHOMA342016
Beaver CreekTEXAS332024
ShieldsTEXAS322001
Mertzon 2TEXAS312024
Shields 2TEXAS312023
LakeviewTEXAS272024
CoopertonOKLAHOMA252024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA252024
ElginOKLAHOMA252016
SilverTEXAS252024
VerdenOKLAHOMA242017
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA241994
DouglasOKLAHOMA232022
CharlieTEXAS232024
ReedOKLAHOMA222019
RosstonOKLAHOMA222018
WilliamsTEXAS222024
CashionOKLAHOMA202024
ClarendonTEXAS202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.