BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Bobwhite In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGrassland birds

Northern Bobwhite in Appalachian Mountains has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-99%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
288Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Bobwhite has collapsed in Appalachian Mountains: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Northern Bobwhite In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2931.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2931.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Bobwhite in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2931.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.8
20260.000.003.8
20270.000.003.8
20280.000.003.8
20290.000.003.8

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Northern Bobwhite in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DearmanvilleALABAMA481983
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY201995
LandrumSOUTH-CAROLINA191992
SummittALABAMA171981
ChildersburgALABAMA171999
Borden SprngALABAMA161998
IvanhoeVIRGINIA151968
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY141997
Jonas RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA141971
ClimerTENNESSEE142004
ArleeWEST-VIRGINIA131977
BerryburgWEST-VIRGINIA131976
DawsonALABAMA111998
ClinchportVIRGINIA111978
GeslingKENTUCKY91973
Craven GapNORTH-CAROLINA81975
NewbernVIRGINIA81982
OneontaALABAMA72019
Greasy RidgeOHIO71991
NicutWEST-VIRGINIA72003
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA71976
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA62022
Coal RunOHIO61989
SigelPENNSYLVANIA61995
GuntersvilleALABAMA52012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.