BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 17–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 17–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201624
2026201624
2027201624
2028201624
2029201724

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS1022024
EldredILLINOIS832021
HarveysburgOHIO711996
Trading PostKANSAS682024
New PointMISSOURI682024
WilmingtonOHIO641996
AthensvilleILLINOIS582024
MadisonMISSOURI562024
BrookvilleINDIANA532024
ChandlervillILLINOIS502024
WallaceINDIANA502024
Red RockIOWA502024
MelroseKANSAS502023
LucerneMISSOURI502021
RobinsonILLINOIS492023
MilfordMISSOURI482024
Camp PointILLINOIS472024
Mt VernonILLINOIS462024
EmdenMISSOURI462024
OhioMISSOURI452024
FrazierMISSOURI452024
FrankfordMISSOURI452024
HuntsvilleMISSOURI412024
KearneyMISSOURI412024
Kahoka2MISSOURI412024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.