BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 17–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 17–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201624
2027201624
2028201624
2029201724
2030201724

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RockinghamMISSOURI1092025
BelleviewILLINOIS1022025
Trading PostKANSAS712025
HarveysburgOHIO711996
BrookvilleINDIANA662025
WilmingtonOHIO641996
Mt VernonILLINOIS622025
New PointMISSOURI612025
EldredILLINOIS562025
MadisonMISSOURI562024
FrankfordMISSOURI562025
AthensvilleILLINOIS522025
Witts StationINDIANA522025
WallaceINDIANA502024
MelroseKANSAS502023
RobinsonILLINOIS492023
Camp PointILLINOIS482025
GulfportILLINOIS462025
EmdenMISSOURI462024
FrazierMISSOURI452024
Kahoka2MISSOURI412024
MelroseILLINOIS401999
ConcordILLINOIS392025
NorborneMISSOURI392023
Kings CreekOHIO392015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.