BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hepatic Tanager Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Hepatic Tanager in Texas has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-75%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hepatic Tanager Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hepatic Tanager in Texas. See the full index history below.

Hepatic Tanager Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±206.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.06
20250.020.000.06
20260.020.000.06
20270.020.000.06
20280.020.000.06

Hepatic Tanager Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Hepatic Tanager in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear Mtn320121988
Utopia319811973
Chisos Basin120231997
Toyahvale120131996
Salt Flat120142009
Valentine119871970

Hepatic Tanager Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradonew-mexico

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.