BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hepatic Tanager Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Hepatic Tanager in New Mexico has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+107%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hepatic Tanager Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hepatic Tanager has surged in New Mexico: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Hepatic Tanager Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in New Mexico is projected to rise about 384% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.34–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+384%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hepatic Tanager in New Mexico is projected to rise about 384% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.34–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.301.1
20260.710.311.1
20270.720.321.1
20280.730.331.1
20290.740.341.1

Hepatic Tanager Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Hepatic Tanager in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve720231993
Pecos420171993
Sabinoso420211995
La Cienega320192002
Horse Spgs320231975
Capitan Mtn.320171998
Claunch219991977
Angel Fire 2220182017
Cloudcroft220171981
Gallinas220211999
Emory Pass220241994
Bluewater Lake220211999
Ojo Sarco119971997
Fence Lake120231975
Horse Mtn120211969
Carrizozo120241977
Mt. Taylor 2120242014
Magdalena120222003
Mt. Taylor120121994
Vallecitos120232023
Variadero120192017
Vicks Peak120241993
Pinon120241994
Queen120211997
Claunch 2120242001

Hepatic Tanager Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.