BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-tailed Towhee Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Green-tailed Towhee in Utah has risen sharply: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-tailed Towhee Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has risen sharply in Utah: up 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green-tailed Towhee Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Utah is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Utah is projected to rise about 76% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 0.00–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.60.0017
20267.60.0017
20277.70.0017
20287.70.0017
20297.80.0017

Green-tailed Towhee Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Altonah7320151968
Beck 26220181990
Lost Cr. Res5620181995
Fish Lake Nf5320241992
Beck4119871971
Grizzly Rdge3420241987
Moon Lake 22920232004
Richfield2620191994
Ant Flat-Ogden Can2520231994
Grouse Creek2319831982
Gooseberry2220241994
Woodruff2020242002
Ferron2020222000
Crawford Mts1920232002
Randolph1920241992
M Warner Res1920241993
Dixie Nf1920241994
Bryce Canyon1620241990
Fayette1120211992
La Sal 31120242007
Logan Canyon1020191997
Moon Lake1020031993
Pine Creek1020181999
E. Bear Lake920221995
Lynn920231982

Green-tailed Towhee Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexaswyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.