BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-tailed Towhee Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Green-tailed Towhee in New Mexico has surged: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+251%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-tailed Towhee Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has surged in New Mexico: up 251% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green-tailed Towhee Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in New Mexico is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in New Mexico is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.002.7
20261.20.002.7
20271.20.002.7
20281.20.002.7
20291.20.002.7

Green-tailed Towhee Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stinking Lk.2319991992
Fence Lake1020241975
Cebolla920231973
Bluewater Lake920211999
Dulce720242000
Mt. Taylor620121993
Cloudcroft520241975
Salt Lake520002000
Angel Fire520021992
Angel Fire 2420242005
Gallinas320241992
Ojo Sarco220241968
Mt. Taylor 2220232014
Shiprock220172016
Counselor220182003
Vallecitos220131994
Quemado219971995
Farmington119871987
Nageesi120122003
Capulin119941993
Salt Lake 2120212002
Torreon120221991
Valencia119741971
Claunch119801977
Horse Spgs120241987

Green-tailed Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.