BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Green-tailed Towhee Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Green-tailed Towhee in Oregon has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Green-tailed Towhee Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Green-tailed Towhee has risen sharply in Oregon: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Green-tailed Towhee Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Oregon is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Green-tailed Towhee in Oregon is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.32.8
20262.11.32.8
20272.11.42.8
20282.11.42.8
20292.11.42.9

Green-tailed Towhee Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Green-tailed Towhee in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lakeview2520241996
Buchanan2420241971
Barnes Val1719871984
Fish Lake1720241972
Flook Lake1620241994
Paisley1120241973
Bly 21020242007
Sisters1020241997
Donnelly820061995
Unity720241992
Picture Flat720241994
Bald Mtn.620241992
Silvies620231994
Paunina520241993
Deschutes419991971
Wickiup419711969
Chinchalo420241993
Lapham Res.320241991
Dell Spring319991968
Emigrant Lk319921974
Ochoco320211998
Crooked Riv.319971997
Three Forks220192019
Wagontire220231991
Emigrant Lake 2220222008

Green-tailed Towhee Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.