BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.38–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.38–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.412.9
20261.60.402.9
20271.60.402.9
20281.60.392.9
20291.60.382.9

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HatfieldWISCONSIN211998
PackertownINDIANA162004
GraytownOHIO161984
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN121987
HudsonWISCONSIN102024
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA72024
BismarkOHIO71995
OmroWISCONSIN72001
MottvilleMICHIGAN62024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA62024
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN62024
Omro 2WISCONSIN62024
Cherry Val 2ILLINOIS52018
North BranchMICHIGAN51998
MiddleburyINDIANA42024
TyreMICHIGAN41995
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN42023
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN42024
PrincetonMINNESOTA42024
N BaltimoreOHIO42018
VeronaWISCONSIN42024
KnoxINDIANA32024
KewannaINDIANA32018
Indiana DuneINDIANA32022
LawrenceMICHIGAN32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.