BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Downy Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Downy Woodpecker In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.05–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.05–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.060.63
20270.340.060.63
20280.340.060.63
20290.340.050.63
20300.340.050.62

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Downy Woodpecker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChandlerMINNESOTA42018
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA42025
HuntleyMINNESOTA32019
Big StoneMINNESOTA32012
WinsideNEBRASKA32003
TildenNEBRASKA32024
KanawhaIOWA22024
ZearingIOWA21995
ClareIOWA22015
ArlingtonMINNESOTA22025
CourtlandMINNESOTA22025
MaynardMINNESOTA22001
DawsonMINNESOTA22017
GlyndonMINNESOTA22022
OkleeMINNESOTA22021
WylieMINNESOTA22024
FairmontMINNESOTA22022
WorthingtonMINNESOTA22008
TracyMINNESOTA22024
SpartaNEBRASKA22021
MadisonNEBRASKA22025
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA22021
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA22022
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA22018
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.