BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Nighthawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.24–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 0.42 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.24–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.240.73
20270.490.240.73
20280.490.240.73
20290.490.240.73
20300.490.240.73

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DesmoinesIOWA221979
WalesIOWA112013
ForakerOKLAHOMA112025
LincolnvilleKANSAS102024
MurdockNEBRASKA92025
JohnsonNEBRASKA72025
Cedar ValleyIOWA51971
EllinorKANSAS52025
LongtonKANSAS52021
GalesburgKANSAS42025
LaplandKANSAS42022
AshleyOHIO41992
ComptonILLINOIS32025
SherburnvillILLINOIS32016
GulfportILLINOIS32025
BelleviewILLINOIS32025
GridleyILLINOIS32010
GaryINDIANA31994
MilroyINDIANA32024
Sioux CityIOWA32025
ThrallKANSAS31970
BarclayKANSAS32025
WrefordKANSAS32024
MoreheadKANSAS32024
Trading PostKANSAS32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.