BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Nighthawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Common Nighthawk In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.24–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.24–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.240.74
20260.490.240.74
20270.490.240.74
20280.490.240.74
20290.490.240.74

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Common Nighthawk in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DesmoinesIOWA221979
WalesIOWA112013
LincolnvilleKANSAS102024
ForakerOKLAHOMA92024
OlsburgKANSAS72024
HumboldtNEBRASKA62024
Cedar ValleyIOWA51971
Sioux CityIOWA52021
BarclayKANSAS52024
LongtonKANSAS52021
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS42022
LaplandKANSAS42022
EllinorKANSAS42024
AshleyOHIO41992
SherburnvillILLINOIS32016
GridleyILLINOIS32010
GaryINDIANA31994
MilroyINDIANA32024
GalesburgKANSAS32024
ThrallKANSAS31970
WrefordKANSAS32024
MoreheadKANSAS32024
Ash CreekMINNESOTA32016
LakevilleMINNESOTA32001
FilleyMISSOURI31993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.