BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cedar Waxwing In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 212% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+212%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 212% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Cedar Waxwing In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.95–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.95–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 40% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.95–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.814.0
20272.40.854.0
20282.50.884.1
20292.50.924.1
20302.50.954.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA522025
HartlandMINNESOTA232007
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA202025
OkleeMINNESOTA152011
TenneyMINNESOTA102013
ClareIOWA82013
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA81981
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA72016
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA72025
MccallsburgIOWA62025
FairmontMINNESOTA62025
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA62017
PantherIOWA52025
ErieMINNESOTA52015
Great FallsMONTANA52002
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA52013
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA52025
GluekMINNESOTA42017
WylieMINNESOTA42024
BadgerMINNESOTA42018
ChinookMONTANA42025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA42025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA42025
KanawhaIOWA32017
TitonkaIOWA31989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.