BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cedar Waxwing In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+196%Since 1969
95Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Cedar Waxwing has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 196% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 149% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.96–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+149%Change by 2029
2.6Projected 2029 index
0.96–4.195% range
±90.6%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.40.824.0
20262.50.864.0
20272.50.894.1
20282.50.934.1
20292.60.964.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Cedar Waxwing in Prairie Potholes.
HartlandMINNESOTA232007
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA182024
OkleeMINNESOTA152011
TenneyMINNESOTA102013
ChinookMONTANA102023
ClareIOWA82013
SydneyNORTH-DAKOTA81981
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA72016
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA62024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA62018
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA62023
TurtonSOUTH-DAKOTA62017
ErieMINNESOTA52015
TracyMINNESOTA52024
Great FallsMONTANA52002
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA52013
PantherIOWA42024
GluekMINNESOTA42017
WylieMINNESOTA42024
BadgerMINNESOTA42018
FairmontMINNESOTA42021
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA42024
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA42024
KanawhaIOWA32017
TitonkaIOWA31989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.