BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+0%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
406Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 9.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 11 (95% range 9.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026119.512
2027119.512
2028119.512
2029119.512
2030119.612

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovellTENNESSEE502019
Corryton RdTENNESSEE462019
Mt OliveTENNESSEE392024
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA382025
DearmanvilleALABAMA371983
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY361997
WelchWEST-VIRGINIA352025
StevensonALABAMA332024
ClimerTENNESSEE332004
BaxterGEORGIA322022
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA322025
DawsonALABAMA311998
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY311995
DoverNEW-JERSEY312023
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA312025
MeridaleNEW-YORK302025
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE302011
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY292022
Phillips CrNEW-YORK292025
SmithfieldOHIO292025
RydePENNSYLVANIA292005
TalladegaALABAMA282025
ShannonGEORGIA282019
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA282025
NewbernVIRGINIA281982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.