BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
405Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 9.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.6–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 9.6–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025119.512
2026119.512
2027119.512
2028119.512
2029119.612

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Blue Jay in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovellTENNESSEE502019
Corryton RdTENNESSEE462019
ChoccoloccoALABAMA422024
Mt OliveTENNESSEE392024
DearmanvilleALABAMA371983
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY361997
Mt OliveALABAMA342024
StevensonALABAMA332024
ClimerTENNESSEE332004
BaxterGEORGIA322022
DawsonALABAMA311998
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA312021
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY311995
DoverNEW-JERSEY312023
DrydenNEW-YORK302024
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE302011
MidvaleNEW-JERSEY292022
RydePENNSYLVANIA292005
CartersvilleGEORGIA282024
ShannonGEORGIA282019
NewbernVIRGINIA281982
Kemah LakeNEW-JERSEY272024
SlateWEST-VIRGINIA272024
GreensportALABAMA262024
MeridaleNEW-YORK262024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.