BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.9 (95% range 5.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.9 (95% range 5.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.05.710
20268.05.710
20278.05.610
20287.95.610
20297.95.610

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneMISSOURI452021
Portage 2INDIANA432024
EmdenMISSOURI382024
AshleyOHIO362018
SenecaKANSAS342022
GildehouseMISSOURI321989
TecumsehOHIO321982
River FallsWISCONSIN312024
MoselleMISSOURI282024
KentonOHIO272024
West ElktonOHIO272012
WayneILLINOIS262024
KingsvilleMISSOURI262024
HumboldtNEBRASKA262024
Marion 2OHIO262024
UnionMISSOURI251999
MurdockNEBRASKA252024
Le RoyMINNESOTA242024
BolckowMISSOURI241992
MarionOHIO232023
HuntsvilleMISSOURI222024
KahokaMISSOURI221998
McfallMISSOURI222024
MelroseILLINOIS211999
GrantvilleKANSAS212022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.