BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.9 (95% range 5.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.9 (95% range 5.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.05.710
20278.05.710
20288.05.710
20297.95.610
20307.95.610

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Blue Jay in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EmdenMISSOURI382024
AshleyOHIO362018
SenecaKANSAS342022
GildehouseMISSOURI321989
TecumsehOHIO321982
Marion 2OHIO322025
HumboldtNEBRASKA312025
KingsvilleMISSOURI282025
West ElktonOHIO272012
New PointMISSOURI262025
House SpringsMISSOURI262025
UnionMISSOURI251999
BolckowMISSOURI241992
WayneILLINOIS232025
MarionOHIO232023
CaledoniaILLINOIS222025
EldredILLINOIS222025
Witts StationINDIANA222025
HudsonIOWA222025
KahokaMISSOURI221998
MelroseILLINOIS211999
Portage 2INDIANA212025
GrantvilleKANSAS212022
Kahoka2MISSOURI212024
BrookvilleINDIANA202025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.