BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Blue Jay In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.06–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.06–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.153.0
20261.50.133.0
20271.50.112.9
20281.50.082.9
20291.50.062.9

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OkleeMINNESOTA202021
ArlingtonMINNESOTA172023
MidwayNEBRASKA152023
TildenNEBRASKA142024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA122024
BeltramiMINNESOTA92024
SpartaNEBRASKA92021
WinsideNEBRASKA92003
MccallsburgIOWA82024
BurchinalIOWA82024
ChandlerMINNESOTA72023
BadgerMINNESOTA72018
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
WashingtonIOWA62024
ZearingIOWA61995
WylieMINNESOTA62024
FairmontMINNESOTA62023
Winside 2NEBRASKA62022
PoncaNEBRASKA62024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA62024
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA62016
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA62011
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA62007
PantherIOWA52024
FranklinMINNESOTA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.