BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Blue Jay In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Blue Jay In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.09–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.09–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.183.0
20271.60.163.0
20281.50.143.0
20291.50.112.9
20301.50.092.9

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Blue Jay in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OkleeMINNESOTA202021
TildenNEBRASKA172025
MadisonNEBRASKA122025
BeltramiMINNESOTA112025
AppletonMINNESOTA92025
WinsideNEBRASKA92003
ArlingtonMINNESOTA82025
Redwood FallMINNESOTA82025
SpartaNEBRASKA82025
ChandlerMINNESOTA72023
BadgerMINNESOTA72018
MidwayNEBRASKA72025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA72025
PantherIOWA62025
WashingtonIOWA62025
ZearingIOWA61995
GlyndonMINNESOTA62025
WylieMINNESOTA62024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA62025
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA62025
Winside 2NEBRASKA62022
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA62016
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA62011
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA62007
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.