BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 209% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.17–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+209%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies is projected to rise about 209% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.17–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.160.71
20270.430.160.71
20280.440.160.71
20290.440.170.71
20300.440.170.72

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuranTEXAS101999
Lone OakTEXAS52022
Glen RoseTEXAS42018
Whit Mtn.TEXAS32019
ComancheTEXAS32023
TatumsOKLAHOMA22014
HobsonTEXAS22025
E GeorgetownTEXAS21974
OsageTEXAS22021
DallasTEXAS22025
WeatherfordTEXAS22024
OlneyTEXAS22009
HenriettaTEXAS22004
Thornton 2TEXAS21991
DecaturTEXAS22024
CampbelltonTEXAS12023
MuldoonTEXAS11988
LockhartTEXAS12025
Oak GroveTEXAS11987
KosseTEXAS11989
ThorntonTEXAS11982
SeldenTEXAS12025
GrafordTEXAS12019
CottonwoodTEXAS12023
AlbanyTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.