BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
190Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.0–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 1.0–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.01.03.0
20262.01.03.0
20272.01.03.0
20282.01.03.0
20292.01.03.0

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BarringtonILLINOIS292012
RaymondWISCONSIN252024
WayneILLINOIS232024
BucyrusKANSAS222024
KearneyMISSOURI212024
HamiltonMISSOURI191985
Le LoupKANSAS172021
FilleyMISSOURI171994
River FallsWISCONSIN162024
BelleviewILLINOIS152024
LincolnvilleKANSAS122024
FrazierMISSOURI122024
Rock Creek 2KANSAS112024
CaledoniaILLINOIS102024
UnionILLINOIS92017
AliceIOWA81999
OlatheKANSAS82021
SenecaKANSAS82022
AustinMINNESOTA82023
AldenILLINOIS72023
DoverKANSAS72022
BarclayKANSAS72024
GrantvilleKANSAS72022
BolckowMISSOURI71992
New PointMISSOURI72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.