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Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
190Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.03.0
20272.01.03.0
20282.01.03.0
20292.01.13.0
20302.01.13.0

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BarringtonILLINOIS292012
HamiltonMISSOURI191985
KearneyMISSOURI192025
CaledoniaILLINOIS182025
Le LoupKANSAS172021
FilleyMISSOURI171994
RockinghamMISSOURI172025
RaymondWISCONSIN142025
WayneILLINOIS132025
Trading PostKANSAS132025
LincolnvilleKANSAS122024
LakevilleMINNESOTA122025
FrazierMISSOURI122024
HarrisonvilleMISSOURI122025
KingsvilleMISSOURI112025
BarclayKANSAS102025
BucyrusKANSAS102025
HolcombILLINOIS92025
UnionILLINOIS92017
River FallsWISCONSIN92025
BelleviewILLINOIS82025
AliceIOWA81999
OlatheKANSAS82021
SenecaKANSAS82022
AustinMINNESOTA82023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.