BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Potholes has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.16–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 0.35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.16–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.161.1
20260.640.161.1
20270.640.161.1
20280.640.161.1
20290.640.161.1

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MidwayNEBRASKA62023
Abercrombie 2NORTH-DAKOTA52016
WashingtonIOWA42022
ClareIOWA42018
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA42024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA42012
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42015
ArlingtonMINNESOTA32023
MaynardMINNESOTA32013
OkleeMINNESOTA32021
TracyMINNESOTA32024
ClevelandMONTANA32017
WalcottNORTH-DAKOTA32021
GeddesSOUTH-DAKOTA32012
GarnerIOWA21988
MccallsburgIOWA22019
HuntleyMINNESOTA22005
Redwood FallMINNESOTA22014
GlyndonMINNESOTA22022
BeltramiMINNESOTA22024
WylieMINNESOTA22024
FairmontMINNESOTA22023
FranklinMINNESOTA22018
SpartaNEBRASKA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.