BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

American Robin in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
405Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Robin in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

American Robin In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 43 (95% range 38–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
38–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 43 (95% range 38–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025433948
2026433947
2027433947
2028433847
2029433847

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording American Robin in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA1882009
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA1541988
SardisPENNSYLVANIA1441974
RydePENNSYLVANIA1302005
MiddletownPENNSYLVANIA1302024
WilliamsportMARYLAND1282024
DuvallPENNSYLVANIA1272021
DoylesburgPENNSYLVANIA1272023
OmegaOHIO1262024
Pine Gr MillPENNSYLVANIA1252024
MartinsburgPENNSYLVANIA1242024
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA1202024
JenningsMARYLAND1172024
FinzelMARYLAND1172024
RalstonPENNSYLVANIA1161978
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA1101974
ClimerTENNESSEE1092004
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA1072024
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA1052024
StonecreekOHIO1042024
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA1042021
Mo Of SenecaWEST-VIRGINIA1022024
Bald EaglePENNSYLVANIA1012024
BirminghamOHIO992024
RectorPENNSYLVANIA971977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.