BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Robin In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

American Robin in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+163%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 29–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
29–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 35 (95% range 29–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025342839
2026342840
2027342940
2028352940
2029352941

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Robin in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantherIOWA3142024
MccallsburgIOWA1282024
WinsideNEBRASKA1122003
SpartaNEBRASKA912021
WashingtonIOWA852024
ScrantonIOWA842024
Winside 2NEBRASKA822022
TitonkaIOWA732024
HuntleyMINNESOTA722024
ChandlerMINNESOTA682023
MaynardMINNESOTA672015
FairmontMINNESOTA652023
PoncaNEBRASKA652024
CourtlandMINNESOTA602024
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA602024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA602024
KanawhaIOWA582024
TildenNEBRASKA582024
WorthingtonMINNESOTA572024
ClareIOWA562019
OkleeMINNESOTA552021
TracyMINNESOTA552024
BurchinalIOWA542024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA542024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA532024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.