BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Robin In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

American Robin in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+189%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Robin has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Robin In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 30–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Robin in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 30–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026342940
2027352941
2028352941
2029353041
2030363042

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Robin in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PantherIOWA2792025
MccallsburgIOWA1132025
WinsideNEBRASKA1122003
SpartaNEBRASKA942025
FairmontMINNESOTA922025
ScrantonIOWA902025
WashingtonIOWA882025
PoncaNEBRASKA852025
Winside 2NEBRASKA822022
WorthingtonMINNESOTA812025
TracyMINNESOTA812025
MadisonNEBRASKA802025
ChandlerMINNESOTA742025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA732025
TildenNEBRASKA722025
MaynardMINNESOTA672015
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA662025
KanawhaIOWA642025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA602025
ChokioMINNESOTA572025
ClareIOWA562019
TitonkaIOWA552025
CourtlandMINNESOTA552025
OkleeMINNESOTA552021
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA552025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.