BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.4–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 9.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.4–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.314
2026117.314
2027117.414
2028117.414
2029117.414

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WayneILLINOIS552024
HarveysburgOHIO491996
HumboldtILLINOIS422024
WilmingtonOHIO401996
Portage 2INDIANA392024
JanesvilleILLINOIS382024
SherrardILLINOIS342024
LucerneMISSOURI342021
MarionOHIO342023
NewportOHIO311994
MelroseILLINOIS291999
Ash RidgeOHIO292021
Witts StationINDIANA272024
CaledoniaILLINOIS262024
KunkleOHIO262024
KentonOHIO262024
PlainfieldINDIANA251999
College Spgs 2IOWA252023
New LenoxILLINOIS242019
FowlerINDIANA242024
WashtaIOWA242014
AshleyOHIO242018
River FallsWISCONSIN242024
College SpgsIOWA232004
BelleviewILLINOIS222024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.