BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 6.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.6–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.415
2026116.415
2027116.515
2028116.615
2029116.616

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OkleeMINNESOTA462021
BeltramiMINNESOTA382024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA352024
MidwayNEBRASKA312023
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA272019
Big StoneMINNESOTA222012
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA222012
ZearingIOWA201995
AppletonMINNESOTA202024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA192023
TenneyMINNESOTA182016
WinsideNEBRASKA182003
TildenNEBRASKA172024
PoncaNEBRASKA172024
Lane 2SOUTH-DAKOTA172014
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA162024
ClareIOWA152019
WylieMINNESOTA152024
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA152024
LaneSOUTH-DAKOTA151999
ChokioMINNESOTA142024
SpartaNEBRASKA142021
Winside 2NEBRASKA142022
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA142024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.