BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Shorebirds In Oregon

All statesOregon

8 species in this guild. As a group they are -56%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Shorebirds as a group have fallen sharply in Oregon, down 56% since 1970.

Shorebirds In Oregon Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Oregon is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Oregon is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 0.91 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.001.2
20270.550.001.2
20280.530.001.2
20290.500.001.2
20300.480.001.1

Member Species In Oregon

Shorebirds species in Oregon.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Wilson's PhalaropeScolopacidae-78%
Black-necked StiltRecurvirostridae-63%
KilldeerCharadriidae-55%
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae-44%
Long-billed CurlewScolopacidae-3%
Wilson's SnipeScolopacidae-1%
American AvocetRecurvirostridae+6%
WilletScolopacidae+21%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.