BirdAnalyst
Guild · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Shorebirds In Idaho

All statesIdaho

8 species in this guild. As a group they are -81%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Shorebirds as a group have collapsed in Idaho, down 81% since 1970.

Shorebirds In Idaho Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Idaho is projected to fall about 96% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-96%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Shorebirds in Idaho is projected to fall about 96% by 2030 — from 0.94 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.002.0
20270.230.001.9
20280.170.001.8
20290.100.001.8
20300.040.001.7

Member Species In Idaho

Shorebirds species in Idaho.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
KilldeerCharadriidae-87%
Wilson's PhalaropeScolopacidae-79%
Wilson's SnipeScolopacidae-69%
WilletScolopacidae-62%
Spotted SandpiperScolopacidae-54%
American AvocetRecurvirostridae-47%
Black-necked StiltRecurvirostridae-41%
Long-billed CurlewScolopacidae+18%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.