BirdAnalyst
Guild · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Generalists In Connecticut

All statesConnecticut

47 species in this guild. As a group they are -50%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Generalists as a group have declined in Connecticut, down 50% since 1968.

Generalists In Connecticut Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.3 (95% range 3.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Generalists in Connecticut is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.3 (95% range 3.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.74.211
20267.64.211
20277.54.111
20287.44.011
20297.33.911

Member Species In Connecticut

Generalists species in Connecticut.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Brown ThrasherMimidae-97%
Field SparrowPasserellidae-96%
Rock PigeonColumbidae-92%
Purple FinchFringillidae-91%
Eastern TowheePasserellidae-89%
Baltimore OrioleIcteridae-79%
Red-winged BlackbirdIcteridae-75%
Rose-breasted GrosbeakCardinalidae-72%
Yellow-billed CuckooCuculidae-72%
Black-billed CuckooCuculidae-71%
Common GrackleIcteridae-71%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae-65%
American KestrelFalconidae-65%
White-throated SparrowPasserellidae-64%
European StarlingSturnidae-63%
Blue JayCorvidae-61%
Belted KingfisherAlcedinidae-53%
Brown-headed CowbirdIcteridae-33%
Song SparrowPasserellidae-33%
House SparrowPasseridae-30%
Eastern Screech-OwlStrigidae-27%
American CrowCorvidae-25%
Scarlet TanagerCardinalidae-21%
Indigo BuntingCardinalidae-14%
Broad-winged HawkAccipitridae+19%
Swamp SparrowPasserellidae+21%
Orchard OrioleIcteridae+25%
Sharp-shinned HawkAccipitridae+28%
Chipping SparrowPasserellidae+30%
Cooper's HawkAccipitridae+38%
Mourning DoveColumbidae+39%
Gray CatbirdMimidae+55%
Great Horned OwlStrigidae+61%
Barred OwlStrigidae+65%
American GoldfinchFringillidae+117%
Ruby-throated HummingbirdTrochilidae+126%
Cedar WaxwingBombycillidae+237%
OspreyPandionidae+245%
Northern CardinalCardinalidae+279%
Northern MockingbirdMimidae+290%
Red-tailed HawkAccipitridae+397%
Turkey VultureCathartidae+426%
House FinchFringillidae+568%
Common RavenCorvidae+704%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+832%
Fish CrowCorvidae15×
Red-shouldered HawkAccipitridae16×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.