BirdAnalyst
Guild · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Game Birds In South Dakota

All statesSouth Dakota

6 species in this guild. As a group they are -59%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1969.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Game birds as a group have fallen sharply in South Dakota, down 59% since 1969.

Game Birds In South Dakota Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.1 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.20.0010
20265.20.0010
20275.20.0010
20285.10.0010
20295.10.0010

Member Species In South Dakota

Game birds species in South Dakota.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Northern BobwhiteOdontophoridae-62%
Gray PartridgePhasianidae-16%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-11%
Sharp-tailed GrousePhasianidae+248%
Greater Prairie-ChickenPhasianidae+759%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae15×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.