BirdAnalyst
Guild · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Game Birds In Oregon

All statesOregon

10 species in this guild. As a group they are -54%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Game birds as a group have fallen sharply in Oregon, down 54% since 1970.

Game Birds In Oregon Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Oregon is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Oregon is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 0.88 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.001.2
20260.460.001.2
20270.430.001.1
20280.400.001.1
20290.370.001.1

Member Species In Oregon

Game birds species in Oregon.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Gray PartridgePhasianidae-88%
Sooty GrousePhasianidae-85%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-59%
ChukarPhasianidae-42%
Greater Sage-GrousePhasianidae-19%
California QuailOdontophoridae-14%
Mountain QuailOdontophoridae+25%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae+52%
Dusky GrousePhasianidae+67%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae26×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.