BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sooty Grouse Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Sooty Grouse in Oregon has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-85%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sooty Grouse Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sooty Grouse has collapsed in Oregon: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Sooty Grouse Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Sooty Grouse in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sooty Grouse in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.35
20260.070.000.35
20270.060.000.35
20280.060.000.35
20290.060.000.34

Sooty Grouse Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Sooty Grouse in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Timber520171968
Cinderella520241993
Warner Mtn.420241992
Cool Camp320131968
Camp Sherman319961972
Myrtle Grove320151992
Wedderburn220192005
Paisley220232008
Svensen219911991
Elk Lake219951972
Sisters220242012
Lakeview220232001
Shellrock120181968
Molalla120231994
Riley Peak119951995
Santiam120151995
Scappoose120071995
Salado119761968
Bull Run120222008
Umpqua119801974
Wizard Falls120232016
Days Creek119941971
Harlan 2120222022
Emigrant Lake 2120022002
Bly 2120082008

Sooty Grouse Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniawashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.