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Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Sooty Grouse Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Sooty Grouse in Alaska has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-86%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Sooty Grouse Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Sooty Grouse has collapsed in Alaska: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Sooty Grouse Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Sooty Grouse in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±151.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Sooty Grouse in Alaska is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.3
20260.000.002.3
20270.000.002.3
20280.000.002.3
20290.000.002.3

Sooty Grouse Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Sooty Grouse in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zimovia Strt2020241988
Haines1620241972
Mitkof Isle1120241988
Kuiu Island820102004
Skagway520241994
Wrangell (Short)419841984
Hyder420091994
Zarembo220142000
Chichagof Is220241994
Petersburg119871987
Stikine River120221998
Juneau Alt119861984
Juneau120221983
Ketchikan120211974
Hoonah120241994

Sooty Grouse Population Trend in Other States

californiaoregonwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.