BirdAnalyst
Guild · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Game Birds In Montana

All statesMontana

7 species in this guild. As a group they are -54%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Game birds as a group have fallen sharply in Montana, down 54% since 1970.

Game Birds In Montana Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Montana is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Game birds in Montana is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.002.4
20260.660.002.3
20270.610.002.3
20280.560.002.2
20290.510.002.2

Member Species In Montana

Game birds species in Montana.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Greater Sage-GrousePhasianidae-79%
Dusky GrousePhasianidae-61%
Ring-necked PheasantPhasianidae-28%
Sharp-tailed GrousePhasianidae+13%
Gray PartridgePhasianidae+70%
Wild TurkeyPhasianidae+135%
Ruffed GrousePhasianidae+153%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.