BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow Warbler In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+257%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 257% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 10–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 10–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025119.513
2026129.614
2027129.814
20281210.014
2029121014

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA1222024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA422024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA362024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA352024
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA292024
ChinookMONTANA282024
BeltramiMINNESOTA262024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA252024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA242024
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA242023
MidwayNEBRASKA222023
GlyndonMINNESOTA202024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA202024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA202024
OkleeMINNESOTA182021
TracyMINNESOTA182024
ClevelandMONTANA182024
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA172019
EdgeleyNORTH-DAKOTA162024
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA162023
TildenNEBRASKA152024
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA152012
PoncaNEBRASKA132024
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA132024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA132023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.