BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow Warbler In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Yellow Warbler in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+259%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow Warbler has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 259% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow Warbler In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 10–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow Warbler in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 12 (95% range 10–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026129.614
2027129.814
20281210.014
2029121014
2030121014

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow Warbler in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA1322025
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA562025
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA402025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA382025
ChinookMONTANA322025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA302025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA262025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA242025
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA242023
BeltramiMINNESOTA232025
MidwayNEBRASKA232025
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA232025
TracyMINNESOTA222025
SpartaNEBRASKA212025
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA192025
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA192025
GlyndonMINNESOTA182025
OkleeMINNESOTA182021
LockhartMINNESOTA182025
LoraineNORTH-DAKOTA172019
VeblenSOUTH-DAKOTA162023
TildenNEBRASKA152025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA152023
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA152025
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA152012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.