BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+244%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 243% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.4–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.32.9
20262.11.32.9
20272.21.43.0
20282.21.43.0
20292.21.43.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CitrusFLORIDA192024
NobletonFLORIDA122024
ChassahowitzFLORIDA112024
Citrus ParkFLORIDA82024
OcalaFLORIDA82024
Mt. OliveFLORIDA72024
GoetheFLORIDA72024
MicanopyFLORIDA61991
San AntonioFLORIDA62024
CroomFLORIDA62024
Island GroveFLORIDA52024
RomeoFLORIDA42024
AripekaFLORIDA42023
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA31970
Pleasant GrFLORIDA32009
Green SwampFLORIDA32024
MabelFLORIDA22011
KenansvilleFLORIDA22023
CrewsvilleFLORIDA22006
Wildernes PkFLORIDA22013
Myakka HeadFLORIDA12004
St AugustineFLORIDA12024
BelmoreFLORIDA12019
Polk CityFLORIDA12024
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.