BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Peninsular Florida has surged: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+275%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Peninsular Florida: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.5–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.21.43.0
20272.21.43.1
20282.31.43.1
20292.31.53.1
20302.31.53.1

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CitrusFLORIDA162025
CroomFLORIDA132025
Island GroveFLORIDA82025
RomeoFLORIDA72025
Ft MccoyFLORIDA72025
NobletonFLORIDA72025
OcalaFLORIDA72025
MicanopyFLORIDA61991
Green SwampFLORIDA62025
GoetheFLORIDA62025
Mt. OliveFLORIDA52025
San AntonioFLORIDA42025
AripekaFLORIDA42023
ChassahowitzFLORIDA42025
St AugustineFLORIDA32025
Polk CityFLORIDA32025
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA31970
Pleasant GrFLORIDA32009
Citrus ParkFLORIDA32025
MabelFLORIDA22011
KenansvilleFLORIDA22023
Mabel 2FLORIDA22025
CrewsvilleFLORIDA22006
Wildernes PkFLORIDA22013
Myakka HeadFLORIDA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.