BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 312% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+312%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.2–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.2–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.32.04.7
20263.42.04.7
20273.42.14.8
20283.52.14.8
20293.52.24.9

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SimsARKANSAS352024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS172024
BethelOKLAHOMA162024
Old MiloARKANSAS132024
Locust BayouARKANSAS132023
Poyen 2ARKANSAS132024
Alexander StTEXAS132024
Flat CreekLOUISIANA112024
LinvilleLOUISIANA112024
PoyenARKANSAS92007
ClayLOUISIANA92024
WomackLOUISIANA92024
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS92019
HopeARKANSAS82024
PrincetonARKANSAS82021
CartervilleLOUISIANA81992
GoodwillLOUISIANA82024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS72022
DibollTEXAS72024
NanceARKANSAS62024
EastonLOUISIANA61990
Fishville 2LOUISIANA62024
GraysonLOUISIANA62021
WechesTEXAS62024
StarkARKANSAS52022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.