BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+211%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 2.2–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 2.2–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.52.12.9
20262.52.13.0
20272.62.23.0
20282.62.23.0
20292.62.23.1

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozark NfARKANSAS222024
RupertARKANSAS122024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE122024
SpencerINDIANA102024
Trace LewisTENNESSEE92017
BelmontINDIANA82024
GeorgiaINDIANA82024
CelestineINDIANA72024
HildaMISSOURI72024
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE72024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS62023
SanduskyILLINOIS62023
MerrimacKENTUCKY62024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY62021
JoyKENTUCKY62023
BlandMISSOURI62023
Osage BeachMISSOURI62024
Clementine 2MISSOURI62007
RudyARKANSAS52024
DelwoodILLINOIS52024
HoosierINDIANA52024
LeveeKENTUCKY51982
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY51988
Mammoth Cave NorthKENTUCKY52013
PinevilleMISSOURI52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.