BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-throated Vireo In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 214% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+214%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 214% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-throated Vireo In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 2.3–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.7 (95% range 2.3–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.52.13.0
20272.62.23.0
20282.62.23.0
20292.62.23.1
20302.72.33.1

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ozark NfARKANSAS162025
BennettMISSOURI162025
RupertARKANSAS122024
SpencerINDIANA102024
Indian SpgsINDIANA102025
HoosierINDIANA92025
CascadeMISSOURI92025
Trace LewisTENNESSEE92017
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS82025
BelmontINDIANA82024
GeorgiaINDIANA82025
Cross PlainsINDIANA82025
RomeOHIO72025
Lewis ForestTENNESSEE72025
DelwoodILLINOIS62025
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS62023
SanduskyILLINOIS62023
MerrimacKENTUCKY62024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY62021
JoyKENTUCKY62023
Clementine 2MISSOURI62007
BelknapILLINOIS52025
CelestineINDIANA52025
Clear SpringINDIANA52025
LeveeKENTUCKY51982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.