BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+186%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
218Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.59 (95% range 0.42–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.59 (95% range 0.42–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.390.72
20260.560.400.73
20270.570.400.74
20280.580.410.75
20290.590.420.76

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClaytonILLINOIS52023
WallaceINDIANA52024
MoselleMISSOURI52023
GeneseoILLINOIS42000
BelleviewILLINOIS42024
St MorganILLINOIS42022
Camp PointILLINOIS42023
SextonINDIANA42016
TrentonMISSOURI42024
Kahoka2MISSOURI42024
River FallsWISCONSIN42024
StillwellILLINOIS32023
BeaucoupILLINOIS32024
RobinsonILLINOIS32023
DarmstadtILLINOIS32024
DudleyvilleILLINOIS32024
Portage 2INDIANA32015
Red RockIOWA32024
AliceIOWA31999
College Spgs 2IOWA32021
SenecaKANSAS32022
FilleyMISSOURI32024
LacledeMISSOURI32024
KearneyMISSOURI32024
WatsonMISSOURI32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.