BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-throated Vireo In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Yellow-throated Vireo in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 542% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+542%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-throated Vireo has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 542% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.06–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-throated Vireo in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.06–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.050.30
20260.170.050.30
20270.180.050.30
20280.180.050.31
20290.180.060.31

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow-throated Vireo in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey LakeTEXAS42024
CayugaTEXAS42024
DecaturTEXAS42017
Thornton 2TEXAS32010
Oak GroveTEXAS21986
Oak Grove 2TEXAS22024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA11999
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12022
NobleOKLAHOMA12024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12007
TatumsOKLAHOMA12022
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
MuldoonTEXAS11986
Lone OakTEXAS11968
GauseTEXAS11997
OlaTEXAS11988
LydiaTEXAS12014
HearneTEXAS12024
CarlosTEXAS12023
YoakumTEXAS12001
BrucevilleTEXAS12000
Wills PointTEXAS12012
Gambill Ref.TEXAS12024
PaigeTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.