BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-billed Cuckoo has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-billed Cuckoo In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.22–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.22–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.80.778.8
20274.70.648.7
20284.50.508.6
20294.40.368.4
20304.30.228.3

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Yellow-billed Cuckoo in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MillerMISSOURI312025
BoxvilleKENTUCKY261983
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS222015
JoyKENTUCKY222023
GraydonMISSOURI222025
BaronOKLAHOMA212023
ColcordOKLAHOMA212022
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE212017
WilliamsvillMISSOURI192025
HaydenMISSOURI182025
Trace CollinwoodTENNESSEE182018
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY172025
IrontonMISSOURI161980
LurtonARKANSAS152023
YellvilleARKANSAS152025
Osage BeachMISSOURI152025
RomeOHIO152025
GranitevilleMISSOURI132025
PulaskiILLINOIS122025
MerrimacKENTUCKY122024
Buena VistaKENTUCKY122017
Bays ForkKENTUCKY122019
WescoMISSOURI122025
Trace LewisTENNESSEE122017
HillsboroALABAMA111996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.