BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wood Duck In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Duck In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 0.78–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 0.78–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.701.9
20271.30.721.9
20281.30.741.9
20291.30.761.9
20301.40.782.0

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wood Duck in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big StoneMINNESOTA342012
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA212013
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA122025
PantherIOWA112023
ArlingtonMINNESOTA102024
OkleeMINNESOTA101997
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA102025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA92025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA92024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA82024
HartlandMINNESOTA72017
ChandlerMINNESOTA72021
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA72025
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA72012
BeltramiMINNESOTA62025
FairmontMINNESOTA62025
TildenNEBRASKA52025
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA52025
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA52025
AppletonMINNESOTA42014
GluekMINNESOTA42018
WorthingtonMINNESOTA42025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA42025
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA42006
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA42015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.