BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wood Duck In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Wood Duck in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

13×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wood Duck has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Wood Duck In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.76–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.76–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wood Duck in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.76–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.681.9
20261.30.701.9
20271.30.721.9
20281.30.741.9
20291.30.761.9

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Wood Duck in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big StoneMINNESOTA342012
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA212013
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA122023
PantherIOWA112023
ArlingtonMINNESOTA102024
OkleeMINNESOTA101997
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA92024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA82024
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA82024
HartlandMINNESOTA72017
ChandlerMINNESOTA72021
AbercrombieNORTH-DAKOTA72012
MontpelierNORTH-DAKOTA72024
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA62024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA62024
AppletonMINNESOTA42014
GluekMINNESOTA42018
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA42006
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA42015
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42023
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA42022
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA32023
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.