BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+211%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 211% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.08–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.080.27
20260.180.080.27
20270.180.080.28
20280.180.080.28
20290.180.080.28

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NewberryINDIANA72024
BrazilINDIANA52024
MillersburgINDIANA42014
LincolnMISSOURI32013
DelwoodILLINOIS21997
YorkILLINOIS22023
PimentoINDIANA22023
WashingtonINDIANA22024
CumbackINDIANA21997
HustonvilleKENTUCKY21968
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY22021
JoyKENTUCKY21998
GoshenKENTUCKY21999
PlumKENTUCKY22024
Peace ValleyMISSOURI21990
Osage BeachMISSOURI22009
WoodlandvilleMISSOURI22015
FultonARKANSAS11976
Boston Mtn.ARKANSAS11998
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS12009
BirdsILLINOIS11997
PulaskiILLINOIS12022
BremenILLINOIS12014
BelknapILLINOIS12007
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.