BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Piedmont has surged: up 584% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+584%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has surged in Piedmont: up 584% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 2.7–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.4 (95% range 2.7–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.12.43.8
20263.22.53.9
20273.32.63.9
20283.32.64.0
20293.42.74.1

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WheatonMARYLAND242024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND202024
EarltonMARYLAND182024
OlneyMARYLAND132024
MadonnaMARYLAND132022
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA132024
EkloMARYLAND112018
SaxapahawNORTH-CAROLINA112023
Pw Forest PkVIRGINIA112009
Ball GroundGEORGIA102021
DavidVIRGINIA102013
WhitesburgGEORGIA92024
CallNORTH-CAROLINA92024
DurhamNORTH-CAROLINA92024
BowdonGEORGIA82024
Van BibberMARYLAND82013
Barton CreekSOUTH-CAROLINA82022
EmmitsburgMARYLAND72024
NorwoodMARYLAND72012
CherryvilleNORTH-CAROLINA71966
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA72024
Big IslandVIRGINIA72024
Lake AnnaVIRGINIA72024
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA62023
PartlowVIRGINIA62015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.