BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

White-breasted Nuthatch In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

White-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

White-breasted Nuthatch has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, White-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.000.60
20260.210.000.60
20270.210.000.60
20280.210.000.59
20290.200.000.59

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording White-breasted Nuthatch in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Silver CreekOREGON122024
AlturasIDAHO101968
Omak CreekWASHINGTON92024
PolsonMONTANA72019
Swan LakeMONTANA62016
Donelly 2OREGON62022
DesolationOREGON41993
SilviesOREGON42024
KellerWASHINGTON42006
Hunter PeakWYOMING42017
Soda LakeWYOMING41992
Fiddler LkWYOMING42007
CoolinIDAHO32001
FeathervilleIDAHO32007
SkalkahoMONTANA31993
Summit PrOREGON32023
MonumentOREGON32023
Yellow PineIDAHO22014
N Fork Cda RIDAHO21995
St RegisMONTANA22009
ArleeMONTANA22013
Red RockMONTANA22003
Thompson RivMONTANA22005
GreenoughMONTANA22003
AlbeeOREGON22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.