BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has fallen sharply in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Western Kingbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.000.30
20270.130.000.29
20280.130.000.29
20290.120.000.29
20300.120.000.29

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GretnaNEBRASKA82018
PiersonIOWA72009
HumboldtKANSAS52021
LincolnvilleKANSAS52023
WashtaIOWA42012
Sioux CityIOWA42023
Trading PostKANSAS42025
DoverMISSOURI42013
OlatheKANSAS32021
DoverKANSAS32016
SeveranceKANSAS32025
LakevilleMINNESOTA31972
IrvingtonNEBRASKA32023
Gretna 2NEBRASKA32022
WalesIOWA22000
EllinorKANSAS22022
BucyrusKANSAS22025
PittsburgKANSAS22021
Le LoupKANSAS22021
Ash CreekMINNESOTA21985
OhioMISSOURI22018
Sni MillsMISSOURI21985
RockinghamMISSOURI22011
McfallMISSOURI22013
CameronMISSOURI22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.