BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Western Kingbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Northern Rockies has surged: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+233%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Northern Rockies: up 232% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Western Kingbird In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.87–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.87–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.831.9
20271.40.841.9
20281.40.851.9
20291.40.861.9
20301.40.872.0

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DonnybrookOREGON201997
MonumentOREGON192025
SpartaOREGON162025
EtheteWYOMING162025
TwickenhamOREGON132025
Church HillMONTANA122025
FloraOREGON92009
MidvaleWYOMING92025
Crane CreekIDAHO82019
LayCOLORADO72025
MadrasOREGON72025
NewbridgeOREGON72025
LaurierWASHINGTON72025
LysiteWYOMING72024
KellerWASHINGTON62007
BasinWYOMING62025
LaurelMONTANA52025
BridgeportOREGON52025
Clover CreekOREGON52025
Neponset ResUTAH52018
OttoWYOMING52025
MaybellCOLORADO42025
PolsonMONTANA42024
BoulderMONTANA42025
GlenMONTANA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.