BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Kingbird In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Western Kingbird in Northern Rockies has surged: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+238%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Kingbird has surged in Northern Rockies: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.87–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Kingbird in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.4 (95% range 0.87–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.831.9
20261.40.841.9
20271.40.851.9
20281.40.862.0
20291.40.872.0

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Western Kingbird in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TwickenhamOREGON272024
MidvaleWYOMING272024
DonnybrookOREGON201997
OttoWYOMING112024
Church HillMONTANA102024
RandolphUTAH102024
FloraOREGON92009
Crane CreekIDAHO82019
Willow Creek 2MONTANA72024
NewbridgeOREGON72024
EtheteWYOMING72024
LysiteWYOMING72024
SpartaOREGON62001
MadrasOREGON62024
KellerWASHINGTON62007
Browns ParkCOLORADO52024
LaurelMONTANA52022
BridgeportOREGON52022
MonumentOREGON52024
Neponset ResUTAH52018
WoodruffUTAH52024
MaybellCOLORADO42024
LayCOLORADO42024
PolsonMONTANA42024
BoulderMONTANA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.