BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Western Cattle-Egret In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Western Cattle-Egret in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 589% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+589%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Western Cattle-Egret has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 589% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Western Cattle-Egret In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 537% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+537%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Western Cattle-Egret in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 537% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.00–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.002.1
20260.830.002.1
20270.840.002.2
20280.850.002.2
20290.870.002.2

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Western Cattle-Egret in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA5002023
BaronOKLAHOMA292004
JoyKENTUCKY202009
MillersburgINDIANA191998
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY151998
SanduskyILLINOIS142009
RussellARKANSAS122019
GlenTENNESSEE122010
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA91967
ReedsMISSOURI91995
ElkmontALABAMA82024
CassvilleMISSOURI81994
ColcordOKLAHOMA82005
CourtlandALABAMA62023
Carter GroveALABAMA62019
PulaskiILLINOIS42001
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS42011
ComptonARKANSAS31998
AvocaARKANSAS32009
RudyARKANSAS32015
CantonKENTUCKY32024
PinevilleMISSOURI31992
WhitewaterMISSOURI32024
FultonARKANSAS21995
KeysburgKENTUCKY22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.